Dilution Watch — 5 October 2026

The week in ASX capital raises and dilution, from the filings themselves. Every figure comes from ASX announcements as published on DilutionLens. This edition covers Monday 28 September to Friday 2 October.

After a week of big cheques, a week of small ones. Fifteen companies announced cash raises between 28 September and 2 October for about A$71.5M, and almost half of it was one deal: CEL's US$24M convertible, about A$34.2M at the rate its filing fixes. Without the top three — Challenger, FLX and M24 — the other twelve disclosed A$24.7M between them. Two of the week's raises were set in US dollars. The halt conveyor slowed: 11 companies halted citing a capital raise in the five sessions, against 16 and 17 in the two weeks before.

The week's biggest raises

• CEL — Challenger Gold agreed US$24M of five-year convertible debentures (28 September), with up to US$6.3M more available. They convert at A$2.72, “a 30% premium to the 20-day VWAP” before 16 September. The money is part of the US$184M its Hualilán heap leach needs to reach production. Its latest quarterly's own estimate was 1.42 quarters of funding. Dilution risk: High.
• FLX — Felix Group placed A$5.54M at 3.8 cents (28 September), an 18.75% premium to the 3.2-cent close on 23 September but 7.4% under the 15-day VWAP, plus an SPP for up to A$1.0M at the same price. About 145.9M new shares take the register to about 444.4M after both tranches, around half again. Directors put in A$1.15M of the second tranche, which waits for the AGM on 9 November. Dilution risk: High.
• M24 — Mamba Exploration placed A$6.0M at 3.8 cents (2 October), a 15.6% discount to the 4.5-cent close on 29 September and a 9.7% premium to the 15-day VWAP — about 157.9M shares. The first tranche uses “61,036,267 shares under Listing Rule 7.1 and 48,753,206 shares under Listing Rule 7.1A”; the rest, including A$165,000 from directors, needs a vote. New Murchison Gold committed A$500,000. Dilution risk: Moderate.
• CHW — Chilwa Minerals priced its Nasdaq IPO: 6.25M shares at US$0.56 each (1 October), A$0.80 at the rate in its own filing, for US$3.5M or about A$5.0M. Another 920,000 can follow on the over-allotment, and buyers get one warrant per ten shares, exercisable at US$5.60 per ADS of ten shares. It came to the market on 0.47 quarters of funding by its latest quarterly, the thinnest of the week, and has now used about 90% of its 15% placement capacity in 12 months. Dilution risk: Very high.
• ILT — Iltani Resources placed A$4.6M at 39 cents (2 October), “a 14.5% discount to the 5-trading day volume weighted average trading price to 29 September 2026”, with one option at 57 cents for every two shares. 5,730,438 shares come under 7.1 and 5,572,167 under 7.1A, and Queensland's QIC critical minerals fund took A$1.5M. Dilution risk: High.
• MEM — Memphasys agreed A$3.5M of convertible notes with Peters Investments (29 September): 12.5% a year, capitalised, maturing in October 2028, and subject to a shareholder vote expected in December. Dilution risk: Very high.

The rest of the week: OCT A$1.8M at 1.8 cents, 10% under the close, with one option for every two shares and a A$0.5M SPP on the same terms, alongside a fluorspar project purchase. PGD A$2.25M at 13.5 cents, 18.2% under the last trade and the deepest stated discount of the week, with Mark Creasy's Yandal Investments as cornerstone. RAN a 1-for-1 entitlement offer at 9 cents for up to A$1.69M — 2.2% under the last trade but 54.7% under the 120-day VWAP — that can double its share count. MGT an SPP for up to A$1.0M, underwritten to A$0.5M, at 1.5 cents or 10% under the closing VWAP if lower, with one option per share and a possible top-up placement. WRX A$1.31M with a gold-antimony acquisition, all of it waiting for its AGM. PV1 a convertible note facility of up to A$1.2M, bought at 90% of face, and an SPP of up to A$600,000. FCT A$1.06M at 0.7 cents, “a nil (0%) discount to the last close”. NSM A$250,000. And NOR a A$160,000 convertible note that refinances a working-capital loan.

New this week: a runway that has run out says so

When a company's last cash report, carried forward at the spend it reported, would already be used up, the page now says “Used up” and gives the month the cash would have run out, instead of a negative runway. Today that is 134 of the 1,043 companies with a runway on the site. It is arithmetic on the last report, not a statement about the bank account; a later raise or cash report resets it.

The halt conveyor

Eleven companies halted for a capital raise in five sessions — CHW, DVL, FCT, ILT, M24, OD6, P1E, PGD, RAN, SRN and WRX — against 16 and 17 in the two weeks before. Seven had announced by Friday. Three announced this morning: OD6 A$6.92M at 9.5 cents, 13.6% under the 11-cent close on 30 September, from 43,384,444 shares under 7.1 and 29,457,663 under 7.1A; SRN up to A$2.61M at 1.8 cents with one option per share; and P1E A$1.17M at 4.1 cents, about 16% under the 15-day VWAP, all from the extra 10%. DVL was still halted at the time of writing.

Thirty-three retail offers are open

Holders in 33 companies have a retail offer running or announced — 17 share purchase plans, 11 entitlement offers and 5 rights issues — down from 38 as older offers closed. Four came in this week: SPPs from MGT and PV1, RAN's entitlement offer, and ENV's 1-for-4 rights issue at a tenth of a cent, the offer document for the raise in our 21 September edition. FLX's SPP (open 2 to 16 October) and OCT's are also running and are not yet in the count. The oldest still listed, MRQ, PGF and POD, were dated 10 August.

Placement capacity

The capacity page today lists 204 companies past 75% of their 15% allowance (196 last week), 140 past 90% (135), and 31 that have used all of it (31); 90 of the 204 have also drawn on the extra 10% mandate. It is our estimate from the filings, before any later ratification, and 1,394 companies carry one. Two of this week's raisers crossed 75% with their raise: CHW (about 90% used) and PGD (about 87%).

Overhangs among this week's raisers

Options, rights and convertibles already on issue are the dilution that comes after the raise. MGT's equal 64.2% of its register, before the option attached to every SPP share; OCT's 38.3%. FLX, CHW and MEM each sit between 25% and 26%. Almost none of it is in the money today: 1.5% of CHW's register at most.

Chart of the week: how much runway the raisers had

Thirteen of this week's fifteen raisers have a filed runway: the quarters of funding their own latest quarterly says they had, before this raise. Seven had under a quarter and a half, and three — CHW, OCT and NOR — had under one. Only ILT raised from well over a year of funding. The three under one quarter brought in about A$7.5M between them, two-thirds of it CHW's US-dollar IPO.

The market currently splits: 584 Minimal, 335 Low, 380 Moderate, 259 High, 167 Very high, and 101 Not rated — about one in four rated companies sits at High or Very high dilution risk.

Dilution Watch is compiled from ASX announcements (Appendix filings, quarterly cash reports and raise notices) as published on DilutionLens. General information only, not financial advice; no view is expressed on any company's future actions or securities.